**The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a January 3, 2026, operation in Caracas, bringing them to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** This fulfilled the market's reference to "another" leader after historical precedents like Manuel Noriega. No comparable US-led captures of sitting heads of state have occurred since, despite ongoing US-Iran tensions that have included targeted strikes and the reported death of Iran's Supreme Leader rather than apprehensions. With roughly three months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed operations or indictments targeting additional foreign leaders underway, traders assign a high probability that no further captures will take place before December 31. Resolution hinges on verified reporting of direct US personnel involvement in any new ground operation resulting in custody.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% khả năng
$81,441 KL.
$81,441 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$81,441 KL.
$81,441 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a January 3, 2026, operation in Caracas, bringing them to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** This fulfilled the market's reference to "another" leader after historical precedents like Manuel Noriega. No comparable US-led captures of sitting heads of state have occurred since, despite ongoing US-Iran tensions that have included targeted strikes and the reported death of Iran's Supreme Leader rather than apprehensions. With roughly three months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed operations or indictments targeting additional foreign leaders underway, traders assign a high probability that no further captures will take place before December 31. Resolution hinges on verified reporting of direct US personnel involvement in any new ground operation resulting in custody.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$81,441Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a January 3, 2026, operation in Caracas, bringing them to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** This fulfilled the market's reference to "another" leader after historical precedents like Manuel Noriega. No comparable US-led captures of sitting heads of state have occurred since, despite ongoing US-Iran tensions that have included targeted strikes and the reported death of Iran's Supreme Leader rather than apprehensions. With roughly three months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed operations or indictments targeting additional foreign leaders underway, traders assign a high probability that no further captures will take place before December 31. Resolution hinges on verified reporting of direct US personnel involvement in any new ground operation resulting in custody.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$81,441Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**The US military captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a January 3, 2026, operation in Caracas, bringing them to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** This fulfilled the market's reference to "another" leader after historical precedents like Manuel Noriega. No comparable US-led captures of sitting heads of state have occurred since, despite ongoing US-Iran tensions that have included targeted strikes and the reported death of Iran's Supreme Leader rather than apprehensions. With roughly three months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed operations or indictments targeting additional foreign leaders underway, traders assign a high probability that no further captures will take place before December 31. Resolution hinges on verified reporting of direct US personnel involvement in any new ground operation resulting in custody.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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