Recent economic data showing inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Minutes from the April meeting highlighted upward shifts in near-term inflation expectations and market pricing that assigns low odds to near-term easing or tightening. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 and growth forecasts stable, participants see limited justification for a 25 basis point move in either direction ahead of the September decision. Uncertainty around the incoming chair following Jerome Powell’s May 2026 term expiration adds a modest premium to the small probability of an increase if price pressures accelerate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 77%
25 bps increase 17%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$93,028 KL.
$93,028 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
17%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 17%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$93,028 KL.
$93,028 KL.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,261 KL.
2%
25 bps decrease
$21,162 KL.
7%
No change
$21,373 KL.
77%
25 bps increase
$19,504 KL.
17%
50+ bps increase
$15,729 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Minutes from the April meeting highlighted upward shifts in near-term inflation expectations and market pricing that assigns low odds to near-term easing or tightening. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 and growth forecasts stable, participants see limited justification for a 25 basis point move in either direction ahead of the September decision. Uncertainty around the incoming chair following Jerome Powell’s May 2026 term expiration adds a modest premium to the small probability of an increase if price pressures accelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$93,028Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent economic data showing inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Minutes from the April meeting highlighted upward shifts in near-term inflation expectations and market pricing that assigns low odds to near-term easing or tightening. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 and growth forecasts stable, participants see limited justification for a 25 basis point move in either direction ahead of the September decision. Uncertainty around the incoming chair following Jerome Powell’s May 2026 term expiration adds a modest premium to the small probability of an increase if price pressures accelerate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$93,028Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent economic data showing inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside resilient labor market conditions have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Minutes from the April meeting highlighted upward shifts in near-term inflation expectations and market pricing that assigns low odds to near-term easing or tightening. With the federal funds rate held steady at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 and growth forecasts stable, participants see limited justification for a 25 basis point move in either direction ahead of the September decision. Uncertainty around the incoming chair following Jerome Powell’s May 2026 term expiration adds a modest premium to the small probability of an increase if price pressures accelerate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp