Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, with May data expected to show further upside from energy prices, combined with resilient May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, anchors trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid these conditions, reflecting market-implied odds of 92.5% for unchanged policy as participants price in the need to monitor inflation pass-through before any adjustment. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections and the imminent May CPI and PPI releases represent key near-term catalysts; material downside surprises in those prints or a dovish pivot could reopen scope for a 25 basis point move.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 6.0%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.6%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$9,002,134 KL.
$9,002,134 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Không thay đổi
93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
6%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 6.0%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.6%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$9,002,134 KL.
$9,002,134 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$1,244,959 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$992,357 KL.
2%
Không thay đổi
$1,303,140 KL.
93%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,961,028 KL.
6%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$1,500,691 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, with May data expected to show further upside from energy prices, combined with resilient May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, anchors trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid these conditions, reflecting market-implied odds of 92.5% for unchanged policy as participants price in the need to monitor inflation pass-through before any adjustment. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections and the imminent May CPI and PPI releases represent key near-term catalysts; material downside surprises in those prints or a dovish pivot could reopen scope for a 25 basis point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$9,002,134Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, with May data expected to show further upside from energy prices, combined with resilient May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, anchors trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid these conditions, reflecting market-implied odds of 92.5% for unchanged policy as participants price in the need to monitor inflation pass-through before any adjustment. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections and the imminent May CPI and PPI releases represent key near-term catalysts; material downside surprises in those prints or a dovish pivot could reopen scope for a 25 basis point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$9,002,134Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, with May data expected to show further upside from energy prices, combined with resilient May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, anchors trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The policy rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid these conditions, reflecting market-implied odds of 92.5% for unchanged policy as participants price in the need to monitor inflation pass-through before any adjustment. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting with updated projections and the imminent May CPI and PPI releases represent key near-term catalysts; material downside surprises in those prints or a dovish pivot could reopen scope for a 25 basis point move.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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