The 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC reflects the Federal Reserve's ongoing hold on the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation readings still well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent employment data, including steady unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains, have reinforced trader consensus that policymakers will prioritize patience at the June 16-17 and July 28-29 meetings rather than adjust policy. Futures markets show limited pricing for moves this year, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance following prior easing cycles. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints could reopen easing odds, while renewed price pressures might elevate small probabilities of a hike.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.7%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$8,211,946 KL.
$8,211,946 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Không thay đổi
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.7%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$8,211,946 KL.
$8,211,946 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$1,058,884 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$850,053 KL.
2%
Không thay đổi
$1,090,867 KL.
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,868,854 KL.
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$1,343,289 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC reflects the Federal Reserve's ongoing hold on the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation readings still well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent employment data, including steady unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains, have reinforced trader consensus that policymakers will prioritize patience at the June 16-17 and July 28-29 meetings rather than adjust policy. Futures markets show limited pricing for moves this year, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance following prior easing cycles. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints could reopen easing odds, while renewed price pressures might elevate small probabilities of a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,211,946Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC reflects the Federal Reserve's ongoing hold on the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation readings still well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent employment data, including steady unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains, have reinforced trader consensus that policymakers will prioritize patience at the June 16-17 and July 28-29 meetings rather than adjust policy. Futures markets show limited pricing for moves this year, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance following prior easing cycles. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints could reopen easing odds, while renewed price pressures might elevate small probabilities of a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$8,211,946Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC reflects the Federal Reserve's ongoing hold on the federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation readings still well above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market. Recent employment data, including steady unemployment near 4.3% and solid job gains, have reinforced trader consensus that policymakers will prioritize patience at the June 16-17 and July 28-29 meetings rather than adjust policy. Futures markets show limited pricing for moves this year, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent stance following prior easing cycles. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints could reopen easing odds, while renewed price pressures might elevate small probabilities of a hike.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp