Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.8%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.8%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 KL.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 KL.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 KL.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 KL.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,297 KL.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 KL.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 KL.
3%
Other
$906 KL.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,411Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$7,411Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to unchanged Federal Reserve decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid a 10.9% energy surge, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Fed's March 17-18 statement held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%, projecting only one rate cut for all of 2026, reinforcing expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the imminent April meeting loom as key catalysts that could shift these odds if data softens unexpectedly.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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