Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve actions, price a 35% implied probability for zero basis-point cuts in 2026—slightly ahead of 30% for one 25-basis-point reduction—reflecting uncertainty from the March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year amid oil price spikes tied to the Iran war escalation and failed peace talks. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projected a single cut to 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but resilient March jobs data (178,000 added, unemployment steady at 4.3%) has bolstered no-cut sentiment, with Governor Waller's April 17 remarks noting cuts remain viable only if conflict resolves swiftly. Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts to differentiate outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 35.4%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 30%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 19%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 8%
$19,638,395 KL.
$19,638,395 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
35%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
30%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
19%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
8%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
4%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
1%
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 35.4%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 30%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 19%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 8%
$19,638,395 KL.
$19,638,395 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
$3,263,451 KL.
35%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
$1,050,352 KL.
30%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
$1,031,227 KL.
19%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
$949,117 KL.
8%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
$978,095 KL.
4%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
$1,086,299 KL.
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
$2,125,553 KL.
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
$955,714 KL.
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
$1,244,855 KL.
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
$1,255,909 KL.
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
$1,745,997 KL.
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
$2,103,849 KL.
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
$1,848,832 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve actions, price a 35% implied probability for zero basis-point cuts in 2026—slightly ahead of 30% for one 25-basis-point reduction—reflecting uncertainty from the March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year amid oil price spikes tied to the Iran war escalation and failed peace talks. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projected a single cut to 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but resilient March jobs data (178,000 added, unemployment steady at 4.3%) has bolstered no-cut sentiment, with Governor Waller's April 17 remarks noting cuts remain viable only if conflict resolves swiftly. Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts to differentiate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$19,638,395Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve actions, price a 35% implied probability for zero basis-point cuts in 2026—slightly ahead of 30% for one 25-basis-point reduction—reflecting uncertainty from the March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year amid oil price spikes tied to the Iran war escalation and failed peace talks. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projected a single cut to 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but resilient March jobs data (178,000 added, unemployment steady at 4.3%) has bolstered no-cut sentiment, with Governor Waller's April 17 remarks noting cuts remain viable only if conflict resolves swiftly. Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts to differentiate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$19,638,395Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital on Federal Reserve actions, price a 35% implied probability for zero basis-point cuts in 2026—slightly ahead of 30% for one 25-basis-point reduction—reflecting uncertainty from the March CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year amid oil price spikes tied to the Iran war escalation and failed peace talks. The FOMC's March 18 dot plot median projected a single cut to 3.4% by year-end from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, but resilient March jobs data (178,000 added, unemployment steady at 4.3%) has bolstered no-cut sentiment, with Governor Waller's April 17 remarks noting cuts remain viable only if conflict resolves swiftly. Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April CPI release loom as pivotal catalysts to differentiate outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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