The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.65% amid elevated term premiums, faces downward pressure primarily from any sustained cooling in inflation or signals of Federal Reserve easing, though sticky core readings and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have kept yields anchored higher than CBO projections. Recent PCE and CPI prints showing persistent pressures above 3% have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy rates through at least the September FOMC meeting, limiting near-term declines despite resilient growth. Key upcoming catalysts include August and September inflation releases, labor market data, and Treasury auction volumes that could widen the term premium further or compress yields if demand strengthens. Market-implied odds reflect these supply-demand dynamics and forward-looking rate path uncertainties rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$225,354 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
3.9%
14%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
1%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
3%
1.0%
2%
$225,354 KL.
3.9%
$44,197 KL.
14%
3.8%
$41,312 KL.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 KL.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 KL.
5%
3.5%
$33,065 KL.
1%
3.0%
$917 KL.
2%
2.0%
$564 KL.
3%
1.0%
$40,570 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.65% amid elevated term premiums, faces downward pressure primarily from any sustained cooling in inflation or signals of Federal Reserve easing, though sticky core readings and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have kept yields anchored higher than CBO projections. Recent PCE and CPI prints showing persistent pressures above 3% have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy rates through at least the September FOMC meeting, limiting near-term declines despite resilient growth. Key upcoming catalysts include August and September inflation releases, labor market data, and Treasury auction volumes that could widen the term premium further or compress yields if demand strengthens. Market-implied odds reflect these supply-demand dynamics and forward-looking rate path uncertainties rather than guaranteed outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$225,354Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.65% amid elevated term premiums, faces downward pressure primarily from any sustained cooling in inflation or signals of Federal Reserve easing, though sticky core readings and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have kept yields anchored higher than CBO projections. Recent PCE and CPI prints showing persistent pressures above 3% have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy rates through at least the September FOMC meeting, limiting near-term declines despite resilient growth. Key upcoming catalysts include August and September inflation releases, labor market data, and Treasury auction volumes that could widen the term premium further or compress yields if demand strengthens. Market-implied odds reflect these supply-demand dynamics and forward-looking rate path uncertainties rather than guaranteed outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Khối lượng
$225,354Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.65% amid elevated term premiums, faces downward pressure primarily from any sustained cooling in inflation or signals of Federal Reserve easing, though sticky core readings and heavy Treasury supply tied to fiscal deficits have kept yields anchored higher than CBO projections. Recent PCE and CPI prints showing persistent pressures above 3% have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy rates through at least the September FOMC meeting, limiting near-term declines despite resilient growth. Key upcoming catalysts include August and September inflation releases, labor market data, and Treasury auction volumes that could widen the term premium further or compress yields if demand strengthens. Market-implied odds reflect these supply-demand dynamics and forward-looking rate path uncertainties rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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