Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to frontrunners KeyBank, Wells Fargo, and U.S. Bancorp failing by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened scrutiny of regional banks' commercial real estate (CRE) exposure amid $900 billion in maturing CRE debt this year. Q1 2026 earnings from Wells Fargo and Truist revealed revenue shortfalls and credit quality deterioration, exacerbating concerns over unrealized securities losses topping $306 billion system-wide per FDIC March data, following January's small Metropolitan Capital Bank failure. While too-big-to-fail majors like JPMorgan trade at 1%, swing factors include rising CRE delinquencies and private credit defaults at 5.8%. Key catalysts: Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 earnings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNgân hàng nào sẽ phá sản trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
Ngân hàng nào sẽ phá sản trước ngày 30 tháng 6?
$433,971 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
KeyBank
47%
Truist
11%
BNY
9%
Morgan Stanley
6%
RBC
6%
Lloyds
6%
BMO
4%
Bank of America
3%
Citigroup
2%
Santander
2%
Goldman Sachs
2%
UBS
2%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
HSBC
1%
Scotiabank
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
Wells Fargo
48%
US Bank
48%
$433,971 KL.
KeyBank
$83 KL.
47%
Truist
$5 KL.
11%
BNY
$5 KL.
9%
Morgan Stanley
$277 KL.
6%
RBC
$0 KL.
6%
Lloyds
$24 KL.
6%
BMO
$16 KL.
4%
Bank of America
$323 KL.
3%
Citigroup
$9,179 KL.
2%
Santander
$24 KL.
2%
Goldman Sachs
$24,873 KL.
2%
UBS
$30,973 KL.
2%
JPMorgan Chase
$107,345 KL.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$153,000 KL.
1%
HSBC
$38,385 KL.
1%
Scotiabank
$46,849 KL.
1%
BNP Paribas
$22,317 KL.
1%
Wells Fargo
$166 KL.
48%
US Bank
$127 KL.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to frontrunners KeyBank, Wells Fargo, and U.S. Bancorp failing by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened scrutiny of regional banks' commercial real estate (CRE) exposure amid $900 billion in maturing CRE debt this year. Q1 2026 earnings from Wells Fargo and Truist revealed revenue shortfalls and credit quality deterioration, exacerbating concerns over unrealized securities losses topping $306 billion system-wide per FDIC March data, following January's small Metropolitan Capital Bank failure. While too-big-to-fail majors like JPMorgan trade at 1%, swing factors include rising CRE delinquencies and private credit defaults at 5.8%. Key catalysts: Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 earnings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$433,971Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to frontrunners KeyBank, Wells Fargo, and U.S. Bancorp failing by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened scrutiny of regional banks' commercial real estate (CRE) exposure amid $900 billion in maturing CRE debt this year. Q1 2026 earnings from Wells Fargo and Truist revealed revenue shortfalls and credit quality deterioration, exacerbating concerns over unrealized securities losses topping $306 billion system-wide per FDIC March data, following January's small Metropolitan Capital Bank failure. While too-big-to-fail majors like JPMorgan trade at 1%, swing factors include rising CRE delinquencies and private credit defaults at 5.8%. Key catalysts: Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 earnings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$433,971Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to frontrunners KeyBank, Wells Fargo, and U.S. Bancorp failing by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened scrutiny of regional banks' commercial real estate (CRE) exposure amid $900 billion in maturing CRE debt this year. Q1 2026 earnings from Wells Fargo and Truist revealed revenue shortfalls and credit quality deterioration, exacerbating concerns over unrealized securities losses topping $306 billion system-wide per FDIC March data, following January's small Metropolitan Capital Bank failure. While too-big-to-fail majors like JPMorgan trade at 1%, swing factors include rising CRE delinquencies and private credit defaults at 5.8%. Key catalysts: Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 earnings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp