The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations removed the primary near-term legal overhang, underpinning the 98% market-implied probability that he avoids incarceration before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or regulatory enforcement actions outstanding, trader consensus reflects the significant institutional and legal barriers to jailing a sitting central bank leader absent extraordinary evidence of wrongdoing. While tail risks such as renewed political pressure or novel allegations could theoretically surface ahead of the next Fed transition, historical precedent and the absence of fresh developments through mid-2026 keep such scenarios remote in the current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations removed the primary near-term legal overhang, underpinning the 98% market-implied probability that he avoids incarceration before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or regulatory enforcement actions outstanding, trader consensus reflects the significant institutional and legal barriers to jailing a sitting central bank leader absent extraordinary evidence of wrongdoing. While tail risks such as renewed political pressure or novel allegations could theoretically surface ahead of the next Fed transition, historical precedent and the absence of fresh developments through mid-2026 keep such scenarios remote in the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,146Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations removed the primary near-term legal overhang, underpinning the 98% market-implied probability that he avoids incarceration before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or regulatory enforcement actions outstanding, trader consensus reflects the significant institutional and legal barriers to jailing a sitting central bank leader absent extraordinary evidence of wrongdoing. While tail risks such as renewed political pressure or novel allegations could theoretically surface ahead of the next Fed transition, historical precedent and the absence of fresh developments through mid-2026 keep such scenarios remote in the current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$5,146Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations removed the primary near-term legal overhang, underpinning the 98% market-implied probability that he avoids incarceration before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or regulatory enforcement actions outstanding, trader consensus reflects the significant institutional and legal barriers to jailing a sitting central bank leader absent extraordinary evidence of wrongdoing. While tail risks such as renewed political pressure or novel allegations could theoretically surface ahead of the next Fed transition, historical precedent and the absence of fresh developments through mid-2026 keep such scenarios remote in the current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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