Trader consensus on Jerome Powell avoiding jail before 2027 reflects the April 2026 closure of the Justice Department probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which a federal judge earlier dismissed for lack of any evidence of criminal conduct. With no active investigations, charges, or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, market-implied odds align with the Fed chair’s institutional protections, fixed term, and historical precedent that political tensions over monetary policy have never produced prosecutions. Upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine oversight, while tail risks such as an unprecedented executive-branch action would require overcoming judicial safeguards and bipartisan institutional resistance that have already constrained prior efforts.