Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
MỚI
Dec 30, 2026
5.25%
50%
5.10%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.95%
50%
4.90%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.80%
50%
4.75%
50%
4.70%
50%
$0.00 KL.
5.25%
$0 KL.
50%
5.10%
$0 KL.
50%
5.00%
$0 KL.
50%
4.95%
$0 KL.
50%
4.90%
$0 KL.
50%
4.85%
$0 KL.
50%
4.80%
$0 KL.
50%
4.75%
$0 KL.
50%
4.70%
$0 KL.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation risks from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to 4.54-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from 3.74% a year earlier. Markets now price a roughly 70% probability of a September rate hike, lifting the policy rate path and term premium amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, heavy Treasury supply, and AI-driven corporate issuance. Persistent fiscal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP and sticky core inflation continue to support higher real yields, with the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 serving as the immediate catalyst for repricing ahead of year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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