Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, compounded by energy price pressures from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, forms the core driver behind elevated odds of a rate hike. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with the July FOMC leaving policy unchanged amid three dissents and hawkish rhetoric from Chair Kevin Warsh. Market pricing via futures and prediction platforms now assigns roughly 55–65% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting, reflecting stronger-than-expected labor data and revised dot-plot expectations for at least one hike by year-end. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and the September FOMC statement, will determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a hold or confirms a modest tightening path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,638,882 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
56%
October Meeting
65%
$2,638,882 KL.
September Meeting
$1,118,756 KL.
56%
October Meeting
$560,126 KL.
65%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, compounded by energy price pressures from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, forms the core driver behind elevated odds of a rate hike. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with the July FOMC leaving policy unchanged amid three dissents and hawkish rhetoric from Chair Kevin Warsh. Market pricing via futures and prediction platforms now assigns roughly 55–65% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting, reflecting stronger-than-expected labor data and revised dot-plot expectations for at least one hike by year-end. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and the September FOMC statement, will determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a hold or confirms a modest tightening path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,638,882Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, compounded by energy price pressures from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, forms the core driver behind elevated odds of a rate hike. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with the July FOMC leaving policy unchanged amid three dissents and hawkish rhetoric from Chair Kevin Warsh. Market pricing via futures and prediction platforms now assigns roughly 55–65% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting, reflecting stronger-than-expected labor data and revised dot-plot expectations for at least one hike by year-end. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and the September FOMC statement, will determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a hold or confirms a modest tightening path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,638,882Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, compounded by energy price pressures from ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, forms the core driver behind elevated odds of a rate hike. The federal funds rate has held steady at 3.50–3.75% since late 2025, with the July FOMC leaving policy unchanged amid three dissents and hawkish rhetoric from Chair Kevin Warsh. Market pricing via futures and prediction platforms now assigns roughly 55–65% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 meeting, reflecting stronger-than-expected labor data and revised dot-plot expectations for at least one hike by year-end. Key upcoming releases, including August CPI and the September FOMC statement, will determine whether trader consensus shifts toward a hold or confirms a modest tightening path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp