The Fed has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks and energy costs, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds via fed funds futures and prediction platforms currently price a roughly even chance of a September 15-16 rate increase, reflecting trader focus on incoming PCE, CPI, and labor data alongside Chair Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability without explicit forward guidance. Strong GDP growth, resilient employment, and productivity gains have supported the hawkish tilt in dot-plot projections, though softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could shift consensus toward a hold. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,619,250 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
55%
October Meeting
65%
$2,619,250 KL.
September Meeting
$1,099,174 KL.
55%
October Meeting
$560,076 KL.
65%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks and energy costs, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds via fed funds futures and prediction platforms currently price a roughly even chance of a September 15-16 rate increase, reflecting trader focus on incoming PCE, CPI, and labor data alongside Chair Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability without explicit forward guidance. Strong GDP growth, resilient employment, and productivity gains have supported the hawkish tilt in dot-plot projections, though softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could shift consensus toward a hold. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,619,250Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks and energy costs, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds via fed funds futures and prediction platforms currently price a roughly even chance of a September 15-16 rate increase, reflecting trader focus on incoming PCE, CPI, and labor data alongside Chair Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability without explicit forward guidance. Strong GDP growth, resilient employment, and productivity gains have supported the hawkish tilt in dot-plot projections, though softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could shift consensus toward a hold. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,619,250Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The Fed has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the July 2026 FOMC meeting amid elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks and energy costs, with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike. Market-implied odds via fed funds futures and prediction platforms currently price a roughly even chance of a September 15-16 rate increase, reflecting trader focus on incoming PCE, CPI, and labor data alongside Chair Warsh’s emphasis on restoring price stability without explicit forward guidance. Strong GDP growth, resilient employment, and productivity gains have supported the hawkish tilt in dot-plot projections, though softer inflation prints or labor-market softening could shift consensus toward a hold. The September decision remains the key near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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