Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$155,012 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
11%
October Meeting
27%
$155,012 KL.
June Meeting
$16,328 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 KL.
6%
September Meeting
$3,063 KL.
11%
October Meeting
$2,545 KL.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$155,012Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$155,012Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid a 17.9% energy price surge, has anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision and shifted trader focus toward potential rate hikes rather than further easing. Resilient labor conditions, including 4.3% unemployment, reinforce the case for holding steady while upside inflation risks persist. Market-implied odds assign low probability to near-term changes, with the June 16-17 FOMC meeting—set to include updated projections—serving as the immediate catalyst. May CPI data due June 10 could further influence sentiment on whether policy remains on hold through year-end or tilts toward a 25 basis point hike later in 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp