Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have dimmed near-term rate cut hopes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes released April 8 revealing officials' growing openness to hikes amid war-fueled oil shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom as key tests, with traders eyeing May CPI for further direction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 90%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Other 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$905,773 KL.
$905,773 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
90%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Other
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 90%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Other 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$905,773 KL.
$905,773 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$31,236 KL.
90%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$15,233 KL.
8%
Other
$216,565 KL.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$132,529 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$510,210 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have dimmed near-term rate cut hopes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes released April 8 revealing officials' growing openness to hikes amid war-fueled oil shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom as key tests, with traders eyeing May CPI for further direction.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$905,773Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have dimmed near-term rate cut hopes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes released April 8 revealing officials' growing openness to hikes amid war-fueled oil shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom as key tests, with traders eyeing May CPI for further direction.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$905,773Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience that have dimmed near-term rate cut hopes. The March 17-18 decision held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes released April 8 revealing officials' growing openness to hikes amid war-fueled oil shocks. March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy spike, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. Upcoming April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings loom as key tests, with traders eyeing May CPI for further direction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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