The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell over Federal Reserve headquarters renovation testimony—after a federal judge quashed subpoenas citing zero evidence of wrongdoing—remains the dominant factor keeping market-implied odds of federal charges near zero through year-end 2026. The investigation, opened in late 2025 amid cost overruns on the roughly $2.5 billion project and political friction with the administration over monetary policy, produced no indictment despite grand jury subpoenas. Referral of the matter to the Fed’s inspector general, who previously identified no fraud, further reduces prospects for renewed action. With Powell’s term as chair concluded in May and no fresh congressional or regulatory catalysts on the horizon, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the probe’s collapse and the high evidentiary bar for perjury or false-statement charges under 18 U.S.C. § 1001.