**Persistent inflation pressures and hawkish FOMC communications are anchoring trader sentiment toward no rate cuts across the July–October 2026 meetings.** The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three dissents favoring a hike amid July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year—still well above the 2 percent target and supported by elevated energy prices. Minutes released August 19 reinforced a patient but vigilant stance, while Chair Warsh’s press conference highlighted risks of reacceleration. With the September 15–16 meeting (including updated projections) and October 27–28 gathering ahead, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause or “Other” sequences that include hikes over any easing path, reflecting trader consensus that labor-market cooling has not yet offset sticky price data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 60%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,475 KL.
$730,475 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
60%
Other 60%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,475 KL.
$730,475 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 KL.
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 KL.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 KL.
<1%
Other
$316,175 KL.
60%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and hawkish FOMC communications are anchoring trader sentiment toward no rate cuts across the July–October 2026 meetings.** The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three dissents favoring a hike amid July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year—still well above the 2 percent target and supported by elevated energy prices. Minutes released August 19 reinforced a patient but vigilant stance, while Chair Warsh’s press conference highlighted risks of reacceleration. With the September 15–16 meeting (including updated projections) and October 27–28 gathering ahead, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause or “Other” sequences that include hikes over any easing path, reflecting trader consensus that labor-market cooling has not yet offset sticky price data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$730,475Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation pressures and hawkish FOMC communications are anchoring trader sentiment toward no rate cuts across the July–October 2026 meetings.** The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three dissents favoring a hike amid July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year—still well above the 2 percent target and supported by elevated energy prices. Minutes released August 19 reinforced a patient but vigilant stance, while Chair Warsh’s press conference highlighted risks of reacceleration. With the September 15–16 meeting (including updated projections) and October 27–28 gathering ahead, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause or “Other” sequences that include hikes over any easing path, reflecting trader consensus that labor-market cooling has not yet offset sticky price data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$730,475Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation pressures and hawkish FOMC communications are anchoring trader sentiment toward no rate cuts across the July–October 2026 meetings.** The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent passed 9–3, with three dissents favoring a hike amid July CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year—still well above the 2 percent target and supported by elevated energy prices. Minutes released August 19 reinforced a patient but vigilant stance, while Chair Warsh’s press conference highlighted risks of reacceleration. With the September 15–16 meeting (including updated projections) and October 27–28 gathering ahead, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause–Pause–Pause or “Other” sequences that include hikes over any easing path, reflecting trader consensus that labor-market cooling has not yet offset sticky price data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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