Elevated inflation readings and hawkish signals from the July FOMC meeting underpin the 62% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October policy sequence. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core PCE reached 3.3%, both well above the 2% target, with energy prices contributing materially amid Middle East supply concerns. The 9-3 July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, and subsequent communications from Chair Warsh emphasized price stability without ruling out further tightening. These factors have kept the probability of consecutive pauses at 35.5%, below levels seen earlier in the year. Traders are now focused on the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and the August PCE release for clearer signals on whether any 25-basis-point adjustment materializes before October.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 KL.
$730,441 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 KL.
$730,441 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 KL.
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 KL.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 KL.
<1%
Other
$316,142 KL.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and hawkish signals from the July FOMC meeting underpin the 62% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October policy sequence. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core PCE reached 3.3%, both well above the 2% target, with energy prices contributing materially amid Middle East supply concerns. The 9-3 July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, and subsequent communications from Chair Warsh emphasized price stability without ruling out further tightening. These factors have kept the probability of consecutive pauses at 35.5%, below levels seen earlier in the year. Traders are now focused on the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and the August PCE release for clearer signals on whether any 25-basis-point adjustment materializes before October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$730,441Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and hawkish signals from the July FOMC meeting underpin the 62% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October policy sequence. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core PCE reached 3.3%, both well above the 2% target, with energy prices contributing materially amid Middle East supply concerns. The 9-3 July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, and subsequent communications from Chair Warsh emphasized price stability without ruling out further tightening. These factors have kept the probability of consecutive pauses at 35.5%, below levels seen earlier in the year. Traders are now focused on the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and the August PCE release for clearer signals on whether any 25-basis-point adjustment materializes before October.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$730,441Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and hawkish signals from the July FOMC meeting underpin the 62% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October policy sequence. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core PCE reached 3.3%, both well above the 2% target, with energy prices contributing materially amid Middle East supply concerns. The 9-3 July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a hike, and subsequent communications from Chair Warsh emphasized price stability without ruling out further tightening. These factors have kept the probability of consecutive pauses at 35.5%, below levels seen earlier in the year. Traders are now focused on the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and the August PCE release for clearer signals on whether any 25-basis-point adjustment materializes before October.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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