Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 KL.
$71,033 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
$71,033 KL.
$71,033 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 KL.
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 KL.
14%
No change
$21,181 KL.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 KL.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$71,033Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$71,033Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data exceeding consensus, including elevated core CPI and PCE readings, combined with robust August nonfarm payrolls, have reinforced trader expectations for a firmer Fed policy stance into 2027 under Chair Kevin Warsh. With the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% and markets pricing elevated odds of a September 2026 hike, the January 2027 decision reflects a baseline of steady rates amid sticky price pressures above the 2% target. Hawkish FOMC communications and limited labor market slack support the 58% implied probability of no change, while a 25 basis point increase remains the primary alternative if disinflation stalls. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with further CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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