Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the August 2026 CPI report, alongside elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 rate decision. Market-implied odds favor no change at 58%, with a 25 basis point hike at 23%, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice. Stronger-than-expected labor market data and upward revisions to core inflation projections have tempered cut probabilities to 11% or less, while the September FOMC's patient stance and upcoming data releases on growth and prices will shape further adjustments in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$71,881 KL.
$71,881 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$71,881 KL.
$71,881 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$14,016 KL.
5%
25 bps decrease
$15,292 KL.
11%
No change
$21,353 KL.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,235 KL.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,985 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the August 2026 CPI report, alongside elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 rate decision. Market-implied odds favor no change at 58%, with a 25 basis point hike at 23%, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice. Stronger-than-expected labor market data and upward revisions to core inflation projections have tempered cut probabilities to 11% or less, while the September FOMC's patient stance and upcoming data releases on growth and prices will shape further adjustments in these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$71,881Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the August 2026 CPI report, alongside elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 rate decision. Market-implied odds favor no change at 58%, with a 25 basis point hike at 23%, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice. Stronger-than-expected labor market data and upward revisions to core inflation projections have tempered cut probabilities to 11% or less, while the September FOMC's patient stance and upcoming data releases on growth and prices will shape further adjustments in these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$71,881Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the August 2026 CPI report, alongside elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve's January 2027 rate decision. Market-implied odds favor no change at 58%, with a 25 basis point hike at 23%, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing that inflation remains a policy choice. Stronger-than-expected labor market data and upward revisions to core inflation projections have tempered cut probabilities to 11% or less, while the September FOMC's patient stance and upcoming data releases on growth and prices will shape further adjustments in these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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