Persistent inflation pressures, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.45%, alongside elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, represent the main driver behind current Fed funds futures and prediction market pricing. Traders see the September 15-16 FOMC meeting as a potential inflection point, with the October 27-28 decision viewed as more likely to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range absent further acceleration in data. Strong labor market conditions and recent hawkish signals from officials have tempered expectations for cuts while capping aggressive hike probabilities, leaving the modest 25 basis point increase odds as the primary alternative to no change. The next inflation and employment releases will shape revisions ahead of these meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 62%
25 bps increase 37%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,828,372 KL.
$1,828,372 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
37%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 37%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,828,372 KL.
$1,828,372 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$304,851 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$622,541 KL.
3%
No change
$304,531 KL.
62%
25 bps increase
$391,990 KL.
37%
50+ bps increase
$204,659 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.45%, alongside elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, represent the main driver behind current Fed funds futures and prediction market pricing. Traders see the September 15-16 FOMC meeting as a potential inflection point, with the October 27-28 decision viewed as more likely to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range absent further acceleration in data. Strong labor market conditions and recent hawkish signals from officials have tempered expectations for cuts while capping aggressive hike probabilities, leaving the modest 25 basis point increase odds as the primary alternative to no change. The next inflation and employment releases will shape revisions ahead of these meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,828,372Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.45%, alongside elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, represent the main driver behind current Fed funds futures and prediction market pricing. Traders see the September 15-16 FOMC meeting as a potential inflection point, with the October 27-28 decision viewed as more likely to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range absent further acceleration in data. Strong labor market conditions and recent hawkish signals from officials have tempered expectations for cuts while capping aggressive hike probabilities, leaving the modest 25 basis point increase odds as the primary alternative to no change. The next inflation and employment releases will shape revisions ahead of these meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,828,372Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with the August 2026 CPI rising 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.45%, alongside elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, represent the main driver behind current Fed funds futures and prediction market pricing. Traders see the September 15-16 FOMC meeting as a potential inflection point, with the October 27-28 decision viewed as more likely to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range absent further acceleration in data. Strong labor market conditions and recent hawkish signals from officials have tempered expectations for cuts while capping aggressive hike probabilities, leaving the modest 25 basis point increase odds as the primary alternative to no change. The next inflation and employment releases will shape revisions ahead of these meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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