Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's March Summary of Economic Projections showing a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—25 basis points below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid stable unemployment at 4.4% and GDP growth projected at 2.4%. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from the Middle East conflict, pushing headline PCE near 3.5%, yet Governor Waller's April 17 remarks frame this as potentially transitory if oil prices ease, favoring later cuts to support softening labor conditions over hikes. Minutes indicate balanced risks, with most officials eyeing easing if inflation moderates. Key catalyst: April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$907,158 KL.
$907,158 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
$907,158 KL.
$907,158 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's March Summary of Economic Projections showing a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—25 basis points below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid stable unemployment at 4.4% and GDP growth projected at 2.4%. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from the Middle East conflict, pushing headline PCE near 3.5%, yet Governor Waller's April 17 remarks frame this as potentially transitory if oil prices ease, favoring later cuts to support softening labor conditions over hikes. Minutes indicate balanced risks, with most officials eyeing easing if inflation moderates. Key catalyst: April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$907,158Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's March Summary of Economic Projections showing a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—25 basis points below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid stable unemployment at 4.4% and GDP growth projected at 2.4%. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from the Middle East conflict, pushing headline PCE near 3.5%, yet Governor Waller's April 17 remarks frame this as potentially transitory if oil prices ease, favoring later cuts to support softening labor conditions over hikes. Minutes indicate balanced risks, with most officials eyeing easing if inflation moderates. Key catalyst: April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$907,158Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's March Summary of Economic Projections showing a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—25 basis points below the current 3.5%-3.75% target—amid stable unemployment at 4.4% and GDP growth projected at 2.4%. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from the Middle East conflict, pushing headline PCE near 3.5%, yet Governor Waller's April 17 remarks frame this as potentially transitory if oil prices ease, favoring later cuts to support softening labor conditions over hikes. Minutes indicate balanced risks, with most officials eyeing easing if inflation moderates. Key catalyst: April 29-30 FOMC meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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