Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for easing despite the Fed's 2% target. March FOMC minutes underscored caution amid elevated inflation risks, with some officials eyeing fewer cuts or potential hikes in 2026. Wells Fargo recently revised to zero cuts this year. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April jobs data (due early May) or cooling core PCE, though current momentum favors the hold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed trong tháng 4?
Quyết định của Fed trong tháng 4?
Không thay đổi 99.4%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên <1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$110,488,134 KL.
$110,488,134 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
<1%
Không thay đổi
99%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 99.4%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản <1%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên <1%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$110,488,134 KL.
$110,488,134 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$41,758,389 KL.
<1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$21,409,708 KL.
<1%
Không thay đổi
$22,004,288 KL.
99%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$25,316,154 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for easing despite the Fed's 2% target. March FOMC minutes underscored caution amid elevated inflation risks, with some officials eyeing fewer cuts or potential hikes in 2026. Wells Fargo recently revised to zero cuts this year. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April jobs data (due early May) or cooling core PCE, though current momentum favors the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$110,488,134Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for easing despite the Fed's 2% target. March FOMC minutes underscored caution amid elevated inflation risks, with some officials eyeing fewer cuts or potential hikes in 2026. Wells Fargo recently revised to zero cuts this year. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April jobs data (due early May) or cooling core PCE, though current momentum favors the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$110,488,134Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and a resilient labor market. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, signaling no urgency for easing despite the Fed's 2% target. March FOMC minutes underscored caution amid elevated inflation risks, with some officials eyeing fewer cuts or potential hikes in 2026. Wells Fargo recently revised to zero cuts this year. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly soft April jobs data (due early May) or cooling core PCE, though current momentum favors the hold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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