Traders assign a 97.4% probability against abolition of the Federal Reserve before 2027 because the institution’s statutory framework, monetary policy mandate, and role as lender of last resort enjoy entrenched congressional and market support. A 2025 abolition bill introduced by Representative Massie and Senator Lee remains stalled in committee with no floor action or leadership backing. Recent Supreme Court rulings have reinforced the Board’s removal protections, while the 2026 transition to Chair Kevin Warsh has focused on internal reforms and task forces rather than dissolution. Passage would require overcoming Senate filibuster thresholds, securing broad bipartisan votes, and managing severe transition risks to financial stability. Only an unforeseen systemic crisis or fundamental realignment of congressional priorities could materially shift these odds within the resolution window.