Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, underpins the 94.7% market-implied odds against an emergency rate cut before 2027. The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026 while economic activity expands solidly, unemployment hovers near 4.2–4.3%, and recent data have prompted traders to price successive 25-basis-point hikes rather than easing. With the FOMC prioritizing price stability amid resilient demand and limited slack in labor markets, an unscheduled cut would require a sharp deterioration in growth or financial conditions. Such an event remains possible but appears remote given current momentum and the central bank’s communicated resolve.