Polymarket traders price OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap in a fragmented range, with 500–750B leading at 23% implied probability amid investor scrutiny of the firm's recent $852 billion post-money valuation from a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026. Heightened competition from Anthropic—closing the revenue gap—and OpenAI's pivot to enterprise sales have sparked doubts over growth sustainability, while massive projected compute costs ($121 billion by 2028) and escalating losses widen the profitability chasm. Internal turbulence, including multiple executive departures, Sora project shutdown, and CEO Sam Altman's flagged conflicts of interest, further caps upside sentiment. CFO concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline elevate the 17% "No IPO by 2027" odds, with key catalysts like regulatory probes and FOMC rate paths ahead.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật500–750B 21%
750B–1T 16%
1.5T+ 15.2%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13%
$15,276 KL.
$15,276 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
21%
750B–1T
16%
1T–1.25T
11%
1.25T–1.5T
8%
1.5T+
15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
16%
500–750B 21%
750B–1T 16%
1.5T+ 15.2%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13%
$15,276 KL.
$15,276 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$97 KL.
7%
500–750B
$245 KL.
21%
750B–1T
$244 KL.
16%
1T–1.25T
$3,101 KL.
11%
1.25T–1.5T
$255 KL.
8%
1.5T+
$71 KL.
15%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$11,264 KL.
16%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap in a fragmented range, with 500–750B leading at 23% implied probability amid investor scrutiny of the firm's recent $852 billion post-money valuation from a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026. Heightened competition from Anthropic—closing the revenue gap—and OpenAI's pivot to enterprise sales have sparked doubts over growth sustainability, while massive projected compute costs ($121 billion by 2028) and escalating losses widen the profitability chasm. Internal turbulence, including multiple executive departures, Sora project shutdown, and CEO Sam Altman's flagged conflicts of interest, further caps upside sentiment. CFO concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline elevate the 17% "No IPO by 2027" odds, with key catalysts like regulatory probes and FOMC rate paths ahead.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$15,276Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap in a fragmented range, with 500–750B leading at 23% implied probability amid investor scrutiny of the firm's recent $852 billion post-money valuation from a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026. Heightened competition from Anthropic—closing the revenue gap—and OpenAI's pivot to enterprise sales have sparked doubts over growth sustainability, while massive projected compute costs ($121 billion by 2028) and escalating losses widen the profitability chasm. Internal turbulence, including multiple executive departures, Sora project shutdown, and CEO Sam Altman's flagged conflicts of interest, further caps upside sentiment. CFO concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline elevate the 17% "No IPO by 2027" odds, with key catalysts like regulatory probes and FOMC rate paths ahead.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$15,276Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap in a fragmented range, with 500–750B leading at 23% implied probability amid investor scrutiny of the firm's recent $852 billion post-money valuation from a record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026. Heightened competition from Anthropic—closing the revenue gap—and OpenAI's pivot to enterprise sales have sparked doubts over growth sustainability, while massive projected compute costs ($121 billion by 2028) and escalating losses widen the profitability chasm. Internal turbulence, including multiple executive departures, Sora project shutdown, and CEO Sam Altman's flagged conflicts of interest, further caps upside sentiment. CFO concerns over an aggressive Q4 2026 IPO timeline elevate the 17% "No IPO by 2027" odds, with key catalysts like regulatory probes and FOMC rate paths ahead.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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