SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which quickly reached roughly $2 trillion in public market cap, drives trader consensus favoring it over OpenAI at 60.4% implied probability. The aerospace and AI infrastructure firm trades near $2 trillion amid Starlink revenue growth and xAI integration, establishing a realized benchmark. In contrast, OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing in June has not led to a 2026 listing; CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment priorities as making a debut "ill-advised" this year, shifting focus to a potential 2027 IPO or interim private round targeting $1.2–1.5 trillion. This timeline gap and lower private valuation anchor around $852 billion limit OpenAI's near-term path to surpassing SpaceX's public capitalization. Key upcoming catalysts include OpenAI's next funding round and any revised IPO guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSpaceX
76% khả năng
$12,120 KL.
$12,120 KL.
Dec 30, 2027
SpaceX
76% khả năng
$12,120 KL.
$12,120 KL.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which quickly reached roughly $2 trillion in public market cap, drives trader consensus favoring it over OpenAI at 60.4% implied probability. The aerospace and AI infrastructure firm trades near $2 trillion amid Starlink revenue growth and xAI integration, establishing a realized benchmark. In contrast, OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing in June has not led to a 2026 listing; CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment priorities as making a debut "ill-advised" this year, shifting focus to a potential 2027 IPO or interim private round targeting $1.2–1.5 trillion. This timeline gap and lower private valuation anchor around $852 billion limit OpenAI's near-term path to surpassing SpaceX's public capitalization. Key upcoming catalysts include OpenAI's next funding round and any revised IPO guidance.
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Thị trường mở: Jan 30, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,120Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 6:12 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which quickly reached roughly $2 trillion in public market cap, drives trader consensus favoring it over OpenAI at 60.4% implied probability. The aerospace and AI infrastructure firm trades near $2 trillion amid Starlink revenue growth and xAI integration, establishing a realized benchmark. In contrast, OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing in June has not led to a 2026 listing; CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment priorities as making a debut "ill-advised" this year, shifting focus to a potential 2027 IPO or interim private round targeting $1.2–1.5 trillion. This timeline gap and lower private valuation anchor around $852 billion limit OpenAI's near-term path to surpassing SpaceX's public capitalization. Key upcoming catalysts include OpenAI's next funding round and any revised IPO guidance.
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.
This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Khối lượng
$12,120Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 6:12 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which quickly reached roughly $2 trillion in public market cap, drives trader consensus favoring it over OpenAI at 60.4% implied probability. The aerospace and AI infrastructure firm trades near $2 trillion amid Starlink revenue growth and xAI integration, establishing a realized benchmark. In contrast, OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing in June has not led to a 2026 listing; CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety and alignment priorities as making a debut "ill-advised" this year, shifting focus to a potential 2027 IPO or interim private round targeting $1.2–1.5 trillion. This timeline gap and lower private valuation anchor around $852 billion limit OpenAI's near-term path to surpassing SpaceX's public capitalization. Key upcoming catalysts include OpenAI's next funding round and any revised IPO guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp