SpaceX's rapid progress toward full Starship reusability, including multiple successful Super Heavy booster tower catches and reflights already underway by late 2025, underpins the 81% market-implied odds for achieving the milestone before 2028. Version 3 vehicles with Raptor 3 engines, improved heat shields, and streamlined structures debuted in 2026 test flights, enabling higher reliability and rapid turnaround. Recent statements from Elon Musk highlight imminent upper-stage catch attempts, with orbital refueling demos targeted for 2026 and operational reuse expected shortly after. These developments, building on 13 total flights and eight successes by mid-2026, have shifted trader consensus toward near-term demonstration of both stages returning for reflights, despite typical aerospace timeline risks.