Recent test flight 13 in July 2026 delivered the first intact Starship upper stage after reentry, yielding critical undamaged heat shield data that Elon Musk declared solved, while V3 upgrades including Raptor 3 engines supported successful Starlink deployment and engine relight. Booster tower catches have been repeatedly validated, yet the upper stage has not yet attempted a tower catch or reflight. Musk’s August 20 statements project the initial ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027 and a tower catch attempt only in coming months, with Flight 14 now slipping into September amid regulatory and recovery timelines. These factors sustain trader consensus around the 58% “No” probability, as full rapid reusability of both stages remains unproven within the narrow remaining window before 2027.