Trump’s Silver Bulletin net approval rating rose modestly to -19.5 as of September 11, 2026, from a recent low of -20.6 the prior week, prompting traders to assign 71.5% odds to an “Up” resolution in the weekly market. Aggregators continue to place overall approval in the high 30s amid sustained voter dissatisfaction with the economy, cost of living, and tariffs, including new trade measures affecting Canadian goods. The Iran conflict and associated energy-price pressures have also weighed on support, though Republican backing has held relatively steady near 75%. The small weekly gain in the Silver Bulletin model reflects incremental polling movement rather than a broader shift, consistent with the market’s pricing of limited short-term volatility around a deeply negative baseline.