**Recent forecasts for Shanghai indicate overnight lows near 25°C on June 30, aligning with the market's leading outcomes clustered around 23–25°C.** Late-June climatology places average minimum temperatures at 23–24°C as the East Asian monsoon transitions and daytime heating builds, with high humidity and frequent cloud cover limiting nocturnal cooling. Official guidance from sources such as AccuWeather shows projected lows of 25–26°C amid ongoing light rain or overcast conditions typical of the tail end of the plum-rain season, while broader June averages hover around 24°C. Model consensus and historical analogs support this range, with only modest day-to-day variability expected before resolution. Clearer skies or stronger southerly flow could push the minimum toward 26–27°C, whereas persistent rain and a brief cool surge might allow 22–23°C. The tight clustering of probabilities around the 23–25°C band reflects traders incorporating these ensemble outputs and the low likelihood of extremes given current atmospheric conditions.