Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 KL.
$28,340 KL.
May 5, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 KL.
$28,340 KL.
May 5, 2026
11°C or below
$5,135 KL.
No
12°C
$5,849 KL.
No
13°C
$2,942 KL.
No
14°C
$5,017 KL.
No
15°C
$4,040 KL.
Yes
16°C
$1,925 KL.
No
17°C
$515 KL.
No
18°C
$526 KL.
No
19°C
$688 KL.
No
20°C
$860 KL.
No
21°C or higher
$844 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,340Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$28,340Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp