Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 5?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 KL.
$57,705 KL.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$57,705 KL.
$57,705 KL.
May 5, 2026
10°C or below
$18,263 KL.
No
11°C
$16,410 KL.
No
12°C
$13,365 KL.
No
13°C
$1,319 KL.
No
14°C
$3,633 KL.
Yes
15°C
$596 KL.
No
16°C
$724 KL.
No
17°C
$1,100 KL.
No
18°C
$941 KL.
No
19°C
$886 KL.
No
20°C or higher
$467 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Khối lượng
$57,705Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$57,705Ngày kết thúc
May 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 14°C at Tokyo's Haneda Airport Station on May 5, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency observations recording this minimum early in the day amid clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions. This aligns precisely with the climatological daily normal minimum of 13.6°C for early May, supported by forecast model consensus from JMA showing no cold air advection or frontal activity to drive further cooling. Overnight radiative cooling is limited by light winds and urban heat island effects in Tokyo. While an improbable mesoscale temperature drop from unexpected clear-sky inversions could challenge this before resolution, current data and historical May patterns indicate overwhelming scientific support for 14°C as the final reading, with JMA's end-of-day confirmation pending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp