Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMajor solar storm by April 30?
Major solar storm by April 30?
$13,998 KL.
$13,998 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
$13,998 KL.
$13,998 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,998Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$13,998Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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