Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has sustained severe facial and leg injuries in the same attacks and remains in recovery without public appearances, as reported in early April. These developments, including unconfirmed claims of his incapacitation in Qom and diminished regime control amid IRGC influence, drive trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for his departure, reflecting a lack of verified exit signals despite escalating airstrikes, diplomatic isolation, and internal power struggles. Ongoing military escalations and potential further targeting of leadership could shift dynamics, but no imminent exit has materialized in the past 30 days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$920,617 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
1%
May 31
6%
June 30
8%
$920,617 KL.
April 30
$237,055 KL.
1%
May 31
$12,619 KL.
6%
June 30
$8,465 KL.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has sustained severe facial and leg injuries in the same attacks and remains in recovery without public appearances, as reported in early April. These developments, including unconfirmed claims of his incapacitation in Qom and diminished regime control amid IRGC influence, drive trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for his departure, reflecting a lack of verified exit signals despite escalating airstrikes, diplomatic isolation, and internal power struggles. Ongoing military escalations and potential further targeting of leadership could shift dynamics, but no imminent exit has materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$920,617Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has sustained severe facial and leg injuries in the same attacks and remains in recovery without public appearances, as reported in early April. These developments, including unconfirmed claims of his incapacitation in Qom and diminished regime control amid IRGC influence, drive trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for his departure, reflecting a lack of verified exit signals despite escalating airstrikes, diplomatic isolation, and internal power struggles. Ongoing military escalations and potential further targeting of leadership could shift dynamics, but no imminent exit has materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$920,617Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei, named Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has sustained severe facial and leg injuries in the same attacks and remains in recovery without public appearances, as reported in early April. These developments, including unconfirmed claims of his incapacitation in Qom and diminished regime control amid IRGC influence, drive trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for his departure, reflecting a lack of verified exit signals despite escalating airstrikes, diplomatic isolation, and internal power struggles. Ongoing military escalations and potential further targeting of leadership could shift dynamics, but no imminent exit has materialized in the past 30 days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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