**Jess Wilson leads the “Next Premier of Victoria” market at 63.5% because the Liberal leader is the clear frontrunner to head the next government after the 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan and RedBridge polling shows the Coalition holding a narrow-to-moderate two-party-preferred edge or competitive primary vote near 30%, with Labor and One Nation also around 25%. Wilson consistently records higher preferred-premier numbers than incumbent Ben Carroll. The July Labor leadership spill that installed Carroll and triggered a royal commission into the construction sector has not produced a sustained polling recovery for Labor, leaving the Coalition positioned as the most likely government-forming party. Carroll sits at 19.5% as the sitting premier but trails on personal approval and faces a compressed campaign window. One Nation’s Warren Pickering (5.5%) and lower-probability names reflect the chance of a fragmented result or hung parliament, though preference flows and the major-party structure still favour Wilson as the individual most likely to be sworn in. No major late-breaking developments have altered this trader consensus in the past month.