Recent polling averages show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor 54–46 on two-party preferred, a reversal from Labor’s 2022 win, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years in government and the July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s primary vote surge to around 23% has fragmented the right but also drawn support from Labor, tightening seat projections despite the Coalition’s statewide edge. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson holds a consistent preferred-premier advantage. With the November 28 election two months away, trader consensus prices the Coalition as the clear favorite while assigning low probabilities to Labor or minor parties, reflecting these sustained trends and historical precedent against a fourth Labor term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 10.2%
Greens <1%
$14,811 KL.
$14,811 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Liberal–National
71%
Labor
22%
One Nation
10%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 10.2%
Greens <1%
$14,811 KL.
$14,811 KL.
Mar 31, 2027
Liberal–National
$7,016 KL.
71%
Labor
$3,553 KL.
22%
One Nation
$3,632 KL.
10%
Greens
$611 KL.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling averages show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor 54–46 on two-party preferred, a reversal from Labor’s 2022 win, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years in government and the July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s primary vote surge to around 23% has fragmented the right but also drawn support from Labor, tightening seat projections despite the Coalition’s statewide edge. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson holds a consistent preferred-premier advantage. With the November 28 election two months away, trader consensus prices the Coalition as the clear favorite while assigning low probabilities to Labor or minor parties, reflecting these sustained trends and historical precedent against a fourth Labor term.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,811Ngày kết thúc
Nov 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling averages show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor 54–46 on two-party preferred, a reversal from Labor’s 2022 win, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years in government and the July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s primary vote surge to around 23% has fragmented the right but also drawn support from Labor, tightening seat projections despite the Coalition’s statewide edge. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson holds a consistent preferred-premier advantage. With the November 28 election two months away, trader consensus prices the Coalition as the clear favorite while assigning low probabilities to Labor or minor parties, reflecting these sustained trends and historical precedent against a fourth Labor term.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Khối lượng
$14,811Ngày kết thúc
Nov 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...Recent polling averages show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor 54–46 on two-party preferred, a reversal from Labor’s 2022 win, driven by voter fatigue after 12 years in government and the July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll. One Nation’s primary vote surge to around 23% has fragmented the right but also drawn support from Labor, tightening seat projections despite the Coalition’s statewide edge. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson holds a consistent preferred-premier advantage. With the November 28 election two months away, trader consensus prices the Coalition as the clear favorite while assigning low probabilities to Labor or minor parties, reflecting these sustained trends and historical precedent against a fourth Labor term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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