**Yabloko, Russia’s liberal anti-war party, faces structural and administrative barriers that keep its chances of clearing the 5% proportional threshold for State Duma entry very low ahead of the September 18–20, 2026 elections.** The party received only 1.3% in 2021 and has shown similarly weak federal results in prior cycles, with its strongest performances limited to a handful of regions. Recent developments include the CEC’s unanimous registration of its federal list on July 29, 2026, yet authorities have already barred dozens of its candidates—32 members cited in mid-2026 reports—under post-2022 legal provisions, including disqualifications targeting leader Nikolai Rybakov. This pressure, combined with the party’s explicit anti-war platform in a tightly managed electoral environment favoring United Russia and established systemic parties, reinforces trader expectations that Yabloko will again fall well short of the threshold. No recent polling or regional results indicate momentum sufficient to overcome these constraints.