Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 52%
1.40–1.44ºC 38%
1.30–1.34ºC 16%
<1.30ºC 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
7%
1.30–1.34ºC
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
52%
1.40–1.44ºC
38%
1.45–1.49ºC
9%
>1.49ºC
6%
1.35–1.39ºC 52%
1.40–1.44ºC 38%
1.30–1.34ºC 16%
<1.30ºC 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$89 KL.
7%
1.30–1.34ºC
$1,363 KL.
12%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 KL.
52%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 KL.
38%
1.45–1.49ºC
$124 KL.
9%
>1.49ºC
$263 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,839Ngày kết thúc
Nov 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,839Ngày kết thúc
Nov 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent observations place September 2026 on track for a global mean temperature anomaly of roughly +0.81 °C relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, consistent with a pre-industrial anomaly near the market’s leading 1.35–1.39 °C bin. A strong El Niño event peaking in the equatorial Pacific has sustained elevated sea-surface temperatures, particularly outside the polar regions, contributing to the joint-hottest August on record at 1.65 °C above 1850–1900 levels and keeping the trailing 12-month average near 1.48 °C. Seasonal cooling from boreal summer peak and model consensus projecting modest further decline through month-end narrow the distribution toward the central bins while leaving room for minor upward or downward revision once final ERA5 and other agency data are complete. Trader positioning reflects this balance between the ongoing oceanic heat release and the typical September trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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