A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
4th or lower 48%
2nd hottest 48%
3rd hottest 48%
1st hottest 46%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
46%
2nd hottest
48%
3rd hottest
48%
4th or lower
48%
4th or lower 48%
2nd hottest 48%
3rd hottest 48%
1st hottest 46%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 KL.
46%
2nd hottest
$0 KL.
48%
3rd hottest
$0 KL.
48%
4th or lower
$0 KL.
48%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a possible historic peak above +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver pushing market-implied odds for September 2026 global temperatures into a tight cluster around 45–48% for 1st–3rd hottest versus 4th or lower. This event builds on record-high ocean heat content and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that placed 2023 and 2024 as the two warmest Septembers on record, while 2025 ranked third. Trader consensus remains balanced because El Niño’s global temperature influence typically lags its Pacific peak, model spreads show variability in September intensification, and comparisons to prior El Niño analogs introduce meaningful uncertainty in exact ranking thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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