**The absence of any confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions through mid-September 2026, combined with subdued global explosivity, underpins the market’s strong preference for zero or one such event.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records show 2026 activity dominated by lower-VEI or effusive eruptions, with no major stratospheric SO₂ injections or caldera unrest detected by USGS and other monitoring networks. Historical data indicate VEI ≥4 events occur at an average rate of roughly 0.5–1 per year, though year-to-year variability is high and large explosive episodes remain rare. Ongoing monitoring at sites such as Kīlauea (effusive fountaining) and various Indonesian and Icelandic systems has produced only VEI ≤3 plumes or lava flows so far. With roughly three-and-a-half months remaining, fresh GVP updates on plume heights, ejecta volumes, or new unrest at high-risk volcanoes could still shift probabilities, but current conditions favor the leading market-implied outcomes.