Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in September 2026, including near-continuous ash emissions from the Northeast Crater, weak Strombolian explosions, and a 4 km volcanic cloud triggering red VONA alerts and Catania airport disruptions, forms the main driver keeping the market near 51% for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV reports variable degassing and warns of potential escalation to energetic explosive phases with taller eruption columns or pyroclastic flows, consistent with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate events (VEI 1–3). Key uncertainties center on whether current or future phases will meet official VEI 2 criteria—plume heights of 1–5 km with notable explosive output—versus remaining at lower levels, as classifications by the Global Volcanism Program lag real-time observations. INGV bulletins and model updates on tremor amplitude or vent evolution could shift consensus before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in September 2026, including near-continuous ash emissions from the Northeast Crater, weak Strombolian explosions, and a 4 km volcanic cloud triggering red VONA alerts and Catania airport disruptions, forms the main driver keeping the market near 51% for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV reports variable degassing and warns of potential escalation to energetic explosive phases with taller eruption columns or pyroclastic flows, consistent with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate events (VEI 1–3). Key uncertainties center on whether current or future phases will meet official VEI 2 criteria—plume heights of 1–5 km with notable explosive output—versus remaining at lower levels, as classifications by the Global Volcanism Program lag real-time observations. INGV bulletins and model updates on tremor amplitude or vent evolution could shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Thị trường mở: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in September 2026, including near-continuous ash emissions from the Northeast Crater, weak Strombolian explosions, and a 4 km volcanic cloud triggering red VONA alerts and Catania airport disruptions, forms the main driver keeping the market near 51% for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV reports variable degassing and warns of potential escalation to energetic explosive phases with taller eruption columns or pyroclastic flows, consistent with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate events (VEI 1–3). Key uncertainties center on whether current or future phases will meet official VEI 2 criteria—plume heights of 1–5 km with notable explosive output—versus remaining at lower levels, as classifications by the Global Volcanism Program lag real-time observations. INGV bulletins and model updates on tremor amplitude or vent evolution could shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Khối lượng
$21Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's ongoing summit activity in September 2026, including near-continuous ash emissions from the Northeast Crater, weak Strombolian explosions, and a 4 km volcanic cloud triggering red VONA alerts and Catania airport disruptions, forms the main driver keeping the market near 51% for a VEI 2+ event this year. INGV reports variable degassing and warns of potential escalation to energetic explosive phases with taller eruption columns or pyroclastic flows, consistent with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate events (VEI 1–3). Key uncertainties center on whether current or future phases will meet official VEI 2 criteria—plume heights of 1–5 km with notable explosive output—versus remaining at lower levels, as classifications by the Global Volcanism Program lag real-time observations. INGV bulletins and model updates on tremor amplitude or vent evolution could shift consensus before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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