Trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption by year-end rests on the extreme rarity of such colossal events, with historical recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years and none recorded since Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-September 2026, global monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows only moderate ongoing activity at systems such as Semeru, Mayon, and Kīlauea, with maximum VEI values around 4 and no large-scale seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas emission spikes signaling rapid escalation at high-potential volcanoes. Limited remaining time further reduces odds. An unforeseen acceleration at an under-monitored caldera could still occur, though such scenarios usually require extended observable precursors absent from current data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
9% khả năng
$146,639 KL.
$146,639 KL.
Mar 30, 2027
9% khả năng
$146,639 KL.
$146,639 KL.
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption by year-end rests on the extreme rarity of such colossal events, with historical recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years and none recorded since Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-September 2026, global monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows only moderate ongoing activity at systems such as Semeru, Mayon, and Kīlauea, with maximum VEI values around 4 and no large-scale seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas emission spikes signaling rapid escalation at high-potential volcanoes. Limited remaining time further reduces odds. An unforeseen acceleration at an under-monitored caldera could still occur, though such scenarios usually require extended observable precursors absent from current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$146,639Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption by year-end rests on the extreme rarity of such colossal events, with historical recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years and none recorded since Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-September 2026, global monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows only moderate ongoing activity at systems such as Semeru, Mayon, and Kīlauea, with maximum VEI values around 4 and no large-scale seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas emission spikes signaling rapid escalation at high-potential volcanoes. Limited remaining time further reduces odds. An unforeseen acceleration at an under-monitored caldera could still occur, though such scenarios usually require extended observable precursors absent from current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$146,639Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring no VEI ≥6 eruption by year-end rests on the extreme rarity of such colossal events, with historical recurrence intervals typically spanning 50–100 years and none recorded since Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-September 2026, global monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows only moderate ongoing activity at systems such as Semeru, Mayon, and Kīlauea, with maximum VEI values around 4 and no large-scale seismic swarms, caldera inflation, or gas emission spikes signaling rapid escalation at high-potential volcanoes. Limited remaining time further reduces odds. An unforeseen acceleration at an under-monitored caldera could still occur, though such scenarios usually require extended observable precursors absent from current data.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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