Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability for no new pandemic in 2026, anchored by the World Health Organization's (WHO) lack of any pandemic declaration since January 1, as required for market resolution via official WHO announcements. Through mid-April, global surveillance by WHO and CDC reports no novel pathogen achieving sustained human-to-human transmission at pandemic scale, despite ongoing avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreaks in animals with only sporadic human cases—over 890 globally since 2003, but limited infectivity—and regional mpox clusters without escalation. Epidemiological indicators like low case fatality and reproduction numbers for candidates such as Oropouche virus reinforce this positioning, though experts note inherent uncertainties in emerging strains; watch WHO's weekly updates and R&D roadmaps for shifts ahead of year-end resolution.