Trader consensus strongly backs a "no" outcome at 93.1% implied probability for any magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale. Historical records from agencies like the USGS show M9+ quakes occur infrequently, with recurrence intervals often spanning decades to centuries along major subduction zones, and none have struck since the 2011 Tohoku event. Current global seismic monitoring reveals no elevated activity, foreshock sequences, or geophysical precursors indicating an imminent megathrust rupture. While realistic scenarios such as sudden strain release on the Cascadia or Chile-Peru trenches could still produce a great earthquake in the remaining months, the short timeframe and absence of triggering indicators keep the odds heavily against it.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% khả năng
$312,453 KL.
$312,453 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
7% khả năng
$312,453 KL.
$312,453 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus strongly backs a "no" outcome at 93.1% implied probability for any magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale. Historical records from agencies like the USGS show M9+ quakes occur infrequently, with recurrence intervals often spanning decades to centuries along major subduction zones, and none have struck since the 2011 Tohoku event. Current global seismic monitoring reveals no elevated activity, foreshock sequences, or geophysical precursors indicating an imminent megathrust rupture. While realistic scenarios such as sudden strain release on the Cascadia or Chile-Peru trenches could still produce a great earthquake in the remaining months, the short timeframe and absence of triggering indicators keep the odds heavily against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$312,453Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus strongly backs a "no" outcome at 93.1% implied probability for any magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale. Historical records from agencies like the USGS show M9+ quakes occur infrequently, with recurrence intervals often spanning decades to centuries along major subduction zones, and none have struck since the 2011 Tohoku event. Current global seismic monitoring reveals no elevated activity, foreshock sequences, or geophysical precursors indicating an imminent megathrust rupture. While realistic scenarios such as sudden strain release on the Cascadia or Chile-Peru trenches could still produce a great earthquake in the remaining months, the short timeframe and absence of triggering indicators keep the odds heavily against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$312,453Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly backs a "no" outcome at 93.1% implied probability for any magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events on the moment magnitude scale. Historical records from agencies like the USGS show M9+ quakes occur infrequently, with recurrence intervals often spanning decades to centuries along major subduction zones, and none have struck since the 2011 Tohoku event. Current global seismic monitoring reveals no elevated activity, foreshock sequences, or geophysical precursors indicating an imminent megathrust rupture. While realistic scenarios such as sudden strain release on the Cascadia or Chile-Peru trenches could still produce a great earthquake in the remaining months, the short timeframe and absence of triggering indicators keep the odds heavily against it.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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