No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest event registering 7.8 off the Philippines in June per USGS data. This aligns with historical variability, as great earthquakes (8.0+) average roughly one to two per year globally but often cluster or skip periods due to plate boundary stress accumulation along subduction zones. Recent activity, including the August 10 M7.4 in Colombia and earlier M7.5 events near Tonga and Venezuela, has not triggered aftershock sequences or model updates indicating elevated risk for an imminent great quake. Trader consensus at 66% for a 7.9-or-below maximum reflects this record to date, though remaining months leave room for shifts if new seismic monitoring reveals accelerating strain release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 66%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 10%
8.4 – 8.5 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
66%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
10%
8.4 – 8.5
9%
8.6 – 8.7
6%
8.8 – 8.9
6%
9.0 or above
5%
7.9 or below 66%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 10%
8.4 – 8.5 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$97 KL.
66%
8.0 – 8.1
$40 KL.
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$55 KL.
10%
8.4 – 8.5
$40 KL.
9%
8.6 – 8.7
$60 KL.
6%
8.8 – 8.9
$40 KL.
6%
9.0 or above
$27 KL.
5%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest event registering 7.8 off the Philippines in June per USGS data. This aligns with historical variability, as great earthquakes (8.0+) average roughly one to two per year globally but often cluster or skip periods due to plate boundary stress accumulation along subduction zones. Recent activity, including the August 10 M7.4 in Colombia and earlier M7.5 events near Tonga and Venezuela, has not triggered aftershock sequences or model updates indicating elevated risk for an imminent great quake. Trader consensus at 66% for a 7.9-or-below maximum reflects this record to date, though remaining months leave room for shifts if new seismic monitoring reveals accelerating strain release.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$357Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest event registering 7.8 off the Philippines in June per USGS data. This aligns with historical variability, as great earthquakes (8.0+) average roughly one to two per year globally but often cluster or skip periods due to plate boundary stress accumulation along subduction zones. Recent activity, including the August 10 M7.4 in Colombia and earlier M7.5 events near Tonga and Venezuela, has not triggered aftershock sequences or model updates indicating elevated risk for an imminent great quake. Trader consensus at 66% for a 7.9-or-below maximum reflects this record to date, though remaining months leave room for shifts if new seismic monitoring reveals accelerating strain release.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$357Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred through mid-August 2026, with the year's strongest event registering 7.8 off the Philippines in June per USGS data. This aligns with historical variability, as great earthquakes (8.0+) average roughly one to two per year globally but often cluster or skip periods due to plate boundary stress accumulation along subduction zones. Recent activity, including the August 10 M7.4 in Colombia and earlier M7.5 events near Tonga and Venezuela, has not triggered aftershock sequences or model updates indicating elevated risk for an imminent great quake. Trader consensus at 66% for a 7.9-or-below maximum reflects this record to date, though remaining months leave room for shifts if new seismic monitoring reveals accelerating strain release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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