Trader consensus prices “No” at 86.5% because the contract resolves only on rare extremes—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic hurricane activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that NOAA models indicate limit rapid intensification. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer, and M8.5+ quakes occurring globally at low frequency—support current odds. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated alerts, while six months remain for potential shifts in forecasts or new seismic/volcanic signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$230,540 KL.
$230,540 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$230,540 KL.
$230,540 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices “No” at 86.5% because the contract resolves only on rare extremes—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic hurricane activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that NOAA models indicate limit rapid intensification. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer, and M8.5+ quakes occurring globally at low frequency—support current odds. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated alerts, while six months remain for potential shifts in forecasts or new seismic/volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$230,540Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices “No” at 86.5% because the contract resolves only on rare extremes—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic hurricane activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that NOAA models indicate limit rapid intensification. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer, and M8.5+ quakes occurring globally at low frequency—support current odds. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated alerts, while six months remain for potential shifts in forecasts or new seismic/volcanic signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$230,540Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices “No” at 86.5% because the contract resolves only on rare extremes—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through late July 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic hurricane activity, and ENSO-neutral to weakly developing El Niño conditions that NOAA models indicate limit rapid intensification. Historical baselines—one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 roughly every several years, VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer, and M8.5+ quakes occurring globally at low frequency—support current odds. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no elevated alerts, while six months remain for potential shifts in forecasts or new seismic/volcanic signals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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