Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$222,610 KL.
$222,610 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$222,610 KL.
$222,610 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$222,610Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$222,610Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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