Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$223,410 KL.
$223,410 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$223,410 KL.
$223,410 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$223,410Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$223,410Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors “No” at 78% because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 landfall (Saffir-Simpson scale, ≥157 mph sustained winds per NHC criteria), VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, none have occurred amid routine M7+ seismicity and an early Atlantic season lacking rapid-intensification signals. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not produced the steering patterns or ocean heat content historically linked to U.S. Cat-5 strikes, which average one every several years. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring show no precursors for VEI 6+ or great earthquakes, while near-Earth object surveys report no imminent threats. With six months left, these thresholds’ low baseline frequencies underpin the current odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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