**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% khả năng
$246,739 KL.
$246,739 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
21% khả năng
$246,739 KL.
$246,739 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$246,739Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$246,739Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**No** holds an implied probability near 80% because none of the market's four high-threshold events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 10 kt+ meteor strike, or Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall—have occurred through mid-September 2026. Global seismic monitoring shows peak events this year at roughly 7.4–7.5 magnitude (Venezuela, Colombia), well below the resolution bar. The Atlantic hurricane season remains anomalously quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by early September—the latest start in the satellite era—under hostile steering and wind-shear patterns tied to evolving ENSO conditions. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded. With roughly three-and-a-half months left and climatological peaks passing without qualifying activity, trader consensus reflects the low remaining probability of any single threshold being crossed.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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