El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% khả năng
$246,739 KL.
$246,739 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
21% khả năng
$246,739 KL.
$246,739 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$246,739Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$246,739Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions strengthening in the Pacific are suppressing North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, with NOAA forecasting an 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season and only 1–3 major hurricanes expected. This reduces the odds of a Category 5 U.S. landfall, one of the few events that could trigger market resolution to Yes. No VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have occurred through mid-September, aligning with the historical rarity of these thresholds. Trader consensus favoring No at 79.5% reflects these atmospheric patterns and the limited remaining window for qualifying events before year-end. Updated seasonal outlooks and seismic monitoring will provide further clarity in coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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