Comprehensive NASA and ESA near-Earth object monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and recent close-approach data, has identified no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the end of 2026. Ongoing planetary defense surveys and refined orbital tracking continue to confirm only low-probability events years or decades away, while recorded fireballs this year remain well below the threshold at under 2kt. Traders assign the 87.5% implied probability of no strike to this robust detection record and historical rarity of such events, though residual uncertainty from undetected small objects sustains the modest Yes price ahead of further LSST observations and routine catalog updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
13% khả năng
$202,200 KL.
$202,200 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
13% khả năng
$202,200 KL.
$202,200 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive NASA and ESA near-Earth object monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and recent close-approach data, has identified no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the end of 2026. Ongoing planetary defense surveys and refined orbital tracking continue to confirm only low-probability events years or decades away, while recorded fireballs this year remain well below the threshold at under 2kt. Traders assign the 87.5% implied probability of no strike to this robust detection record and historical rarity of such events, though residual uncertainty from undetected small objects sustains the modest Yes price ahead of further LSST observations and routine catalog updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$202,200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive NASA and ESA near-Earth object monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and recent close-approach data, has identified no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the end of 2026. Ongoing planetary defense surveys and refined orbital tracking continue to confirm only low-probability events years or decades away, while recorded fireballs this year remain well below the threshold at under 2kt. Traders assign the 87.5% implied probability of no strike to this robust detection record and historical rarity of such events, though residual uncertainty from undetected small objects sustains the modest Yes price ahead of further LSST observations and routine catalog updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$202,200Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive NASA and ESA near-Earth object monitoring, including Sentry risk assessments and recent close-approach data, has identified no cataloged asteroids on trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy through the end of 2026. Ongoing planetary defense surveys and refined orbital tracking continue to confirm only low-probability events years or decades away, while recorded fireballs this year remain well below the threshold at under 2kt. Traders assign the 87.5% implied probability of no strike to this robust detection record and historical rarity of such events, though residual uncertainty from undetected small objects sustains the modest Yes price ahead of further LSST observations and routine catalog updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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