NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy—a scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst but twice as powerful. This absence of tracked threats from objects around 20-50 meters in diameter drives the market's 96.1% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on vigilant global monitoring by NASA and ESA. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at lunar distance and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March, reinforce confidence despite record small-meteor sightings this year. An undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, though historical rates suggest less than 1% annual odds; updated orbital data expected quarterly could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$104,419 KL.
$104,419 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,419 KL.
$104,419 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy—a scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst but twice as powerful. This absence of tracked threats from objects around 20-50 meters in diameter drives the market's 96.1% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on vigilant global monitoring by NASA and ESA. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at lunar distance and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March, reinforce confidence despite record small-meteor sightings this year. An undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, though historical rates suggest less than 1% annual odds; updated orbital data expected quarterly could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$104,419Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy—a scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst but twice as powerful. This absence of tracked threats from objects around 20-50 meters in diameter drives the market's 96.1% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on vigilant global monitoring by NASA and ESA. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at lunar distance and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March, reinforce confidence despite record small-meteor sightings this year. An undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, though historical rates suggest less than 1% annual odds; updated orbital data expected quarterly could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$104,419Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, currently lists zero potential Earth impacts for 2026 capable of releasing 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy—a scale comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst but twice as powerful. This absence of tracked threats from objects around 20-50 meters in diameter drives the market's 96.1% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on vigilant global monitoring by NASA and ESA. Recent safe flybys, including house-sized 2026 GD on April 9 at lunar distance and car-sized 2026 FM3 in March, reinforce confidence despite record small-meteor sightings this year. An undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, though historical rates suggest less than 1% annual odds; updated orbital data expected quarterly could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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