NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and the Sentry monitoring system report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy through the end of 2026, underpinning the 98.5% market-implied odds for “No.” Continuous sky surveys and orbital refinements have ruled out threats from cataloged near-Earth objects, consistent with the extremely low historical frequency of such events—roughly once every few centuries. Traders assign near-certainty to this outcome because detection networks have improved dramatically, reducing the chance of surprise impacts from larger bodies. The primary remaining uncertainty stems from the slim possibility of a newly discovered small object striking before year-end, though ongoing observations make this highly improbable.