No known near-Earth objects large enough to generate a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems. Cataloged asteroids and comets show only distant flybys in the coming months, with impact probabilities effectively zero for objects in the relevant size range. Historical bolide data place the baseline annual rate for 5kt-class events well below 30 percent, and the absence of any new detections or orbital revisions that could alter this outlook has reinforced trader consensus favoring “No.” Upcoming survey updates from ground- and space-based telescopes will further narrow uncertainties, but current orbital solutions leave little room for surprise impacts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% khả năng
$311,640 KL.
$311,640 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
27% khả năng
$311,640 KL.
$311,640 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to generate a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems. Cataloged asteroids and comets show only distant flybys in the coming months, with impact probabilities effectively zero for objects in the relevant size range. Historical bolide data place the baseline annual rate for 5kt-class events well below 30 percent, and the absence of any new detections or orbital revisions that could alter this outlook has reinforced trader consensus favoring “No.” Upcoming survey updates from ground- and space-based telescopes will further narrow uncertainties, but current orbital solutions leave little room for surprise impacts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$311,640Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to generate a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems. Cataloged asteroids and comets show only distant flybys in the coming months, with impact probabilities effectively zero for objects in the relevant size range. Historical bolide data place the baseline annual rate for 5kt-class events well below 30 percent, and the absence of any new detections or orbital revisions that could alter this outlook has reinforced trader consensus favoring “No.” Upcoming survey updates from ground- and space-based telescopes will further narrow uncertainties, but current orbital solutions leave little room for surprise impacts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$311,640Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to generate a 5-kiloton airburst remain on collision trajectories for 2026, according to continuous monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems. Cataloged asteroids and comets show only distant flybys in the coming months, with impact probabilities effectively zero for objects in the relevant size range. Historical bolide data place the baseline annual rate for 5kt-class events well below 30 percent, and the absence of any new detections or orbital revisions that could alter this outlook has reinforced trader consensus favoring “No.” Upcoming survey updates from ground- and space-based telescopes will further narrow uncertainties, but current orbital solutions leave little room for surprise impacts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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