Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 tornadoes through early September 2026, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks, including a 99-tornado event in June, produced above-normal activity across the Midwest and Plains, supported by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions. With only modest additional reports expected through December, trader consensus at 91% for a 1,250+ total reflects this strong year-to-date surplus and limited downside risk from revisions or quiet fall months. Downward adjustments to preliminary reports or an unusually suppressed late-season pattern could narrow the margin, though historical precedent makes sub-1,250 totals improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.0%
1200–1249 3.6%
1100–1149 3.4%
$83,036 KL.
$83,036 KL.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 4.0%
1200–1249 3.6%
1100–1149 3.4%
$83,036 KL.
$83,036 KL.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,841 KL.
<1%
950–999
$3,731 KL.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 KL.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,287 KL.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,368 KL.
3%
1150–1199
$4,192 KL.
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 KL.
4%
1250+
$19,139 KL.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 tornadoes through early September 2026, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks, including a 99-tornado event in June, produced above-normal activity across the Midwest and Plains, supported by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions. With only modest additional reports expected through December, trader consensus at 91% for a 1,250+ total reflects this strong year-to-date surplus and limited downside risk from revisions or quiet fall months. Downward adjustments to preliminary reports or an unusually suppressed late-season pattern could narrow the margin, though historical precedent makes sub-1,250 totals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Khối lượng
$83,036Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 tornadoes through early September 2026, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks, including a 99-tornado event in June, produced above-normal activity across the Midwest and Plains, supported by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions. With only modest additional reports expected through December, trader consensus at 91% for a 1,250+ total reflects this strong year-to-date surplus and limited downside risk from revisions or quiet fall months. Downward adjustments to preliminary reports or an unusually suppressed late-season pattern could narrow the margin, though historical precedent makes sub-1,250 totals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$83,036Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary counts from the Storm Prediction Center show 1,419 tornadoes through early September 2026, already exceeding the long-term annual average of roughly 1,200–1,300. Multiple spring and early-summer outbreaks, including a 99-tornado event in June, produced above-normal activity across the Midwest and Plains, supported by persistent favorable atmospheric conditions. With only modest additional reports expected through December, trader consensus at 91% for a 1,250+ total reflects this strong year-to-date surplus and limited downside risk from revisions or quiet fall months. Downward adjustments to preliminary reports or an unusually suppressed late-season pattern could narrow the margin, though historical precedent makes sub-1,250 totals improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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