**Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure system dominating the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to push daytime highs in Madrid to 33–35°C on September 14.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 34°C (53% implied probability) and 35°C (35%), as ensemble runs cluster in the low-to-mid 30s amid warm advection and dry conditions typical of late summer. Historical September maxima average around 27°C, with the all-time record for the date at 34.4°C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns favor an above-normal but not extreme peak before cooler air arrives mid-week. Low precipitation risk and consistent model agreement limit upside surprises, keeping tail outcomes like 36°C or higher below 3% combined. Traders are weighting the most probable afternoon maximum from official AEMET and ECMWF guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 14?
34°C 53%
35°C 35%
33°C 10%
36°C 1.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
10%
34°C
53%
35°C
35%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 35%
33°C 10%
36°C 1.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
29°C or below
$233 KL.
<1%
30°C
$687 KL.
1%
31°C
$221 KL.
<1%
32°C
$269 KL.
1%
33°C
$1,572 KL.
10%
34°C
$1,797 KL.
53%
35°C
$2,043 KL.
35%
36°C
$324 KL.
2%
37°C
$256 KL.
<1%
38°C
$271 KL.
<1%
39°C or higher
$236 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure system dominating the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to push daytime highs in Madrid to 33–35°C on September 14.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 34°C (53% implied probability) and 35°C (35%), as ensemble runs cluster in the low-to-mid 30s amid warm advection and dry conditions typical of late summer. Historical September maxima average around 27°C, with the all-time record for the date at 34.4°C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns favor an above-normal but not extreme peak before cooler air arrives mid-week. Low precipitation risk and consistent model agreement limit upside surprises, keeping tail outcomes like 36°C or higher below 3% combined. Traders are weighting the most probable afternoon maximum from official AEMET and ECMWF guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$7,911Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure system dominating the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to push daytime highs in Madrid to 33–35°C on September 14.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 34°C (53% implied probability) and 35°C (35%), as ensemble runs cluster in the low-to-mid 30s amid warm advection and dry conditions typical of late summer. Historical September maxima average around 27°C, with the all-time record for the date at 34.4°C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns favor an above-normal but not extreme peak before cooler air arrives mid-week. Low precipitation risk and consistent model agreement limit upside surprises, keeping tail outcomes like 36°C or higher below 3% combined. Traders are weighting the most probable afternoon maximum from official AEMET and ECMWF guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$7,911Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and national meteorological services show a stable high-pressure system dominating the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies, light southerly or easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover expected to push daytime highs in Madrid to 33–35°C on September 14.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading outcomes of 34°C (53% implied probability) and 35°C (35%), as ensemble runs cluster in the low-to-mid 30s amid warm advection and dry conditions typical of late summer. Historical September maxima average around 27°C, with the all-time record for the date at 34.4°C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns favor an above-normal but not extreme peak before cooler air arrives mid-week. Low precipitation risk and consistent model agreement limit upside surprises, keeping tail outcomes like 36°C or higher below 3% combined. Traders are weighting the most probable afternoon maximum from official AEMET and ECMWF guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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