Severe drought and prolonged heat across central and eastern Europe have driven the Danube to record-low levels in multiple gauges as of mid-August 2026, sharply curtailing commercial navigation, cruise operations, and cooling water for power plants. Traders price the highest probability for a return to normal during October, reflecting expectations that seasonal rainfall increases and cooling temperatures will gradually restore flow after the summer peak stress. Shorter-term September windows carry lower but material odds due to uncertainty over the timing and intensity of early autumn precipitation. Earlier resolution remains discounted given the depth of current deficits, while extension past October is viewed as a low-probability tail scenario dependent on sustained dry conditions.