Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak of 31–32°C across London on August 12 amid persistent high pressure and southerly flow advecting warmer continental air, with clear skies maximizing daytime heating after a summer already running 2–3°C above average. Minor spread in short-range runs—some showing 30°C under subtle cloud or timing shifts, others 33°C if the ridge strengthens—keeps the three central outcomes tightly clustered in trader positioning. Official thresholds reference standard Stevenson screen measurements at sites like Heathrow or St James’s Park, where urban effects can add 1–2°C locally. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings tomorrow morning remain the key catalysts that could refine these implied probabilities before resolution.