The contained 2026 Andes hantavirus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before international contact tracing and 42-day quarantines ended all monitoring without further spread, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official CDC and WHO assessments highlight that Andes virus—the only hantavirus capable of person-to-person transmission—requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or community spread, with reproductive numbers remaining low outside the ship setting. Sporadic rodent-borne cases continue in endemic South American regions, yet surveillance data show no sustained chains or mutations enabling broader outbreaks. A realistic shift would require documented evolutionary changes boosting transmissibility or an undetected large-scale spillover, both considered improbable given current epidemiological patterns and rapid public-health containment.