Ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy this year, anchoring the 95.9% market-implied probability for “No.” Global base rates for such airbursts or ground impacts remain low—roughly once every several decades—consistent with CTBTO infrasound records and the absence of objects larger than a few tens of meters on collision courses. Elevated small-fireball counts observed in 2026 reflect only meter-scale events well below threshold. A realistic shift would require discovery of a previously undetected ~20–40 meter stony asteroid or comet fragment on a direct path before year-end, an outcome current wide-field surveys make improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy this year, anchoring the 95.9% market-implied probability for “No.” Global base rates for such airbursts or ground impacts remain low—roughly once every several decades—consistent with CTBTO infrasound records and the absence of objects larger than a few tens of meters on collision courses. Elevated small-fireball counts observed in 2026 reflect only meter-scale events well below threshold. A realistic shift would require discovery of a previously undetected ~20–40 meter stony asteroid or comet fragment on a direct path before year-end, an outcome current wide-field surveys make improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,842Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy this year, anchoring the 95.9% market-implied probability for “No.” Global base rates for such airbursts or ground impacts remain low—roughly once every several decades—consistent with CTBTO infrasound records and the absence of objects larger than a few tens of meters on collision courses. Elevated small-fireball counts observed in 2026 reflect only meter-scale events well below threshold. A realistic shift would require discovery of a previously undetected ~20–40 meter stony asteroid or comet fragment on a direct path before year-end, an outcome current wide-field surveys make improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$8,842Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring confirm no cataloged near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent energy this year, anchoring the 95.9% market-implied probability for “No.” Global base rates for such airbursts or ground impacts remain low—roughly once every several decades—consistent with CTBTO infrasound records and the absence of objects larger than a few tens of meters on collision courses. Elevated small-fireball counts observed in 2026 reflect only meter-scale events well below threshold. A realistic shift would require discovery of a previously undetected ~20–40 meter stony asteroid or comet fragment on a direct path before year-end, an outcome current wide-field surveys make improbable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp